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41.
42.
Testing competing conceptual model hypotheses in hydrology is complicated by uncertainties from a wide range of sources, which result in multiple simulations that explain catchment behaviour. In this study, the limits of acceptability uncertainty analysis approach used to discriminate between 78 competing hypotheses in the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors for 24 catchments in the UK. During model evaluation, we test the model's ability to represent observed catchment dynamics and processes by defining key hydrologic signatures and time step‐based metrics from the observed discharge time series. We explicitly account for uncertainty in the evaluation data by constructing uncertainty bounds from errors in the stage‐discharge rating curve relationship. Our study revealed large differences in model performance both between catchments and depending on the type of diagnostic used to constrain the simulations. Model performance varied with catchment characteristics and was best in wet catchments with a simple rainfall‐runoff relationship. The analysis showed that the value of different diagnostics in constraining catchment response and discriminating between competing conceptual hypotheses varies according to catchment characteristics. The information content held within water balance signatures was found to better capture catchment dynamics in chalk catchments, where catchment behaviour is predominantly controlled by seasonal and annual changes in rainfall, whereas the information content in the flow‐duration curve and time‐step performance metrics was able to better capture the dynamics of rainfall‐driven catchments. We also investigate the effect of model structure on model performance and demonstrate its (in)significance in reproducing catchment dynamics for different catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
43.
Recreation or restoration of salt marsh through the deliberate removal of flood defences (managed realignment or de‐embankment) is a common practice across Europe and the USA, with potential to enhance delivery of ecosystem services. However, recent research suggests that physical, chemical and ecological processes may be impaired in recreated sites as a result of the modified morphology, sediment structure and hydrology associated with both the restoration process and historic land use. This paper compares physical sediment properties and subsurface water levels recorded in paired natural and de‐embanked (recreated) salt marshes in SE England. Using a combination of statistical and time‐series modelling, significant differences between the natural and recreated marshes are identified. Sediment properties (bulk density, moisture content and organic content) within each marsh were statistically different and imply that de‐embanked sediments are compacted, which may affect subsurface water movement. Analysis of hydrological time series reveals that the de‐embanked salt marsh is characterized by a damped response to tidal flooding with elevated and less variable water levels. This, combined with analysis of hydrographs and hysteresis patterns over individual tidal cycles, suggests that fast, horizontal near‐surface flows enhanced by the relict land surface may play a greater role in drainage of the de‐embanked salt marsh. The importance of hydrological functioning in governing many important physical and biogeochemical processes in salt marshes suggests any modifications would have significant implications for the delivery of ecosystem services. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
44.
The measurement of discharge is fundamental in nutrient load estimation. Because of our ability to monitor discharge routinely, it is generally assumed that the associated uncertainty is low. This paper challenges this preconception, arguing that discharge uncertainty should be explicitly taken into account to produce robust statistical analyses. In many studies, paired discharge and chemical datasets are used to calculate ‘true’ loads and used as the benchmark to compare with other load estimates. This paper uses two years of high frequency (daily and sub‐hourly) discharge and nutrient concentration data (nitrate‐N and total phosphorus (TP)) collected at four field sites as part of the Hampshire Avon Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) programme. A framework for estimating observational nutrient load uncertainty was used which combined a flexible non‐parametric approach to characterising discharge uncertainty, with error modelling that allowed the incorporation of errors which were heteroscedastic and temporally correlated. The results showed that the stage–discharge relationships were non‐stationary, and observational uncertainties from ±2 to 25% were recorded when the velocity–area method was used. The variability in nutrient load estimates ranged from 1.1 to 9.9% for nitrate‐N and from 3.3 to 10% for TP when daily laboratory data were used, rising to a maximum of 9% for nitrate‐N and 83% for TP when the sensor data were used. However, the sensor data provided a better representation of the ‘true’ load as storm events are better represented temporally, posing the question: is it more beneficial to have high frequency, lower precision data or lower frequency but higher precision data streams to estimate nutrient flux responses in headwater catchments? Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
45.
Alongshore variation in the rip current hazard at Pensacola Beach, Florida   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
Many drowning and near drownings at Pensacola Beach, Florida are attributed to rip currents, the strong seaward-flowing currents that extend from the shoreline to the line of breakers and sometimes beyond. While surf forecasts assume that the rip hazard is uniform alongshore and that the (erosion) rips are ephemeral features, evidence is presented to suggest that the rip hazard at Pensacola Beach is not uniform alongshore. Rather the rip current “hotspots” develop as a consequence of an alongshore variation in the surf similarity parameter and nearshore state on the order of ~1,450 m. The variation is forced by transverse ridges on the inner shelf that force wave refraction and focusing at the ridge crests. This creates a more dissipative, rhythmic bar and beach morphology at the ridges and rougher surf. Between ridges, where wave heights and periods are smaller and the outermost bar is forced closer to the shoreline, the nearshore is in a (more reflective) bar and rip state during red flag conditions. Drownings between 2000 and 2009 are shown to be clustered between transverse ridges and in the years following a hurricane or tropical storm (2000–2003 and 2005–2008) when the bar and rip morphology first develops as the shore face recovers. This continues until the innermost bar attaches to the beach face unless the bar system is reset by another tropical storm or hurricane. It is argued that the rip hazard is dependent on the alongshore covariation of the environmental forcing with the individual and group behavior in both time and space, even on what appears to be a relatively uniform beach environment.  相似文献   
46.
This study reports novel findings on the Pliocene?CQuaternary history of the northern Gulf of Cadiz margin and the spatiotemporal evolution of the associated contourite depositional system. Four major seismic units (P1, P2, QI and QII) were identified in the Pliocene?CQuaternary sedimentary record based on multichannel seismic profiles. These are bounded by five major discontinuities which, from older to younger, are the M (Messinian), LPR (lower Pliocene revolution), BQD (base Quaternary discontinuity), MPR (mid-Pleistocene revolution) and the actual seafloor. Unit P1 represents pre-contourite hemipelagic/pelagic deposition along the northern Gulf of Cadiz margin. Unit P2 reflects a significant change in margin sedimentation when contourite deposition started after the Early Pliocene. Mounded elongated and separated drifts were generated during unit QI deposition, accompanied by a general upslope progradation of drifts and the migration of main depocentres towards the north and northwest during both the Pliocene and Quaternary. This progradation became particularly marked during QII deposition after the mid-Pleistocene (MPR). Based on the spatial distribution of the main contourite depocentres and their thickness, three structural zones have been identified: (1) an eastern zone, where NE?CSW diapiric ridges have controlled the development of two internal sedimentary basins; (2) a central zone, which shows important direct control by the Guadalquivir Bank in the south and an E?CW Miocene palaeorelief structure in the north, both of which have significantly conditioned the basin-infill geometry; and (3) a western zone, affected in the north by the Miocene palaeorelief which favours deposition in the southern part of the basin. Pliocene tectonic activity has been an important factor in controlling slope morphology and, hence, influencing Mediterranean Outflow Water pathways. Since the mid-Pleistocene (MPR), the sedimentary stacking pattern of contourite drifts has been less affected by tectonics and more directly by climatic and sea-level changes.  相似文献   
47.
This contribution to this special volume represents the first attempt to comprehensively describe regional contourite (along-slope) processes and their sedimentary impacts around the Iberian margin, combining numerically simulated bottom currents with existing knowledge of contourite depositional and erosional features. The circulation of water masses is correlated with major contourite depositional systems (CDSs), and potential areas where new CDSs could be found are identified. Water-mass circulation leads to the development of along-slope currents which, in turn, generate contourite features comprising individual contourite drifts and erosional elements forming extensive, complex CDSs of considerable thickness in various geological settings. The regionally simulated bottom-current velocities reveal the strong impact of these water masses on the seafloor, especially in two principal areas: (1) the continental slopes of the Alboran Sea and the Atlantic Iberian margins, and (2) the abyssal plains in the Western Mediterranean and eastern Atlantic. Contourite processes at this scale are associated mainly with the Western Mediterranean Deep Water and the Levantine Intermediate Water in the Alboran Sea, and with both the Mediterranean Outflow Water and the Lower Deep Water in the Atlantic. Deep gateways are essential in controlling water-mass exchange between the abyssal plains, and thereby bottom-current velocities and pathways. Seamounts represent important obstacles for water-mass circulation, and high bottom-current velocities are predicted around their flanks, too. Based on these findings and those of a selected literature review, including less easily accessible ??grey literature?? such as theses and internal reports, it is clear that the role of bottom currents in shaping continental margins and abyssal plains has to date been generally underestimated, and that many may harbour contourite systems which still remain unexplored today. CDSs incorporate valuable sedimentary records of Iberian margin geological evolution, and further study seems promising in terms of not only stratigraphic, sedimentological, palaeoceanographic and palaeoclimatological research but also possible deep marine geohabitats and/or mineral and energy resources.  相似文献   
48.
The seabed morphology in the vicinity of the seamounts on the Motril Marginal Plateau (northern Alboran Sea) was investigated using high-resolution (sparker) and very high-resolution (TOPAS) seismic reflection profiles and multibeam bathymetry. The aim of the study was to determine the recent geological processes, and in particular those that control the contourite depositional system associated with the intermediate and deep Mediterranean water masses. Six groups of morphological features were identified: structural features (seamount tops, tectonic depressions), fluid escape-related features (pockmarks), mass-movement features (gullies, slides), bottom-current features (moats, scour marks, terraces, elongated and separated drifts, plastered drifts, confined drifts, sheeted drifts), mixed features (ridges) and biogenic features (including evidence of (dead) cold water corals such as Lophelia pertusa and Madrepora oculata). The main processes controlling the formation of these features are recent tectonic activity and the interaction of Mediterranean water masses with the seafloor topography. Seamounts act as topographic barriers that affect the pathway and velocity of the deep Mediterranean water masses, which are divided into strands that interact with the surrounding seafloor. The influence of the intermediate Mediterranean water mass, by contrast, is restricted mainly to the tops of the seamounts. Sediment instability and fluid-escape processes play a minor role, their occurrence being probably related to seismicity.  相似文献   
49.
Concerns over the potential negative health effects from exposure to air pollution have led to interest in assessing personal exposure and finding ways to reduce it. As journey-time exposure accounts for a disproportionately high amount of an individual's total exposure, this article assesses the potential to apply least-cost techniques within a GIS in order to identify paths of lower journey-time exposure. The methodology adopted uses pollution surfaces for PM10 and CO generated by the dispersion model ADMS, with an analysis mask derived from OS MasterMap to create a least-cost surface. Actual routes taken by a cohort of 11–13 year old children on their journeys to school are used to compare observed journey time exposure with the exposure along alternative routes generated using the least-cost path function. While the least-cost approach proved to be successful in defining low exposure routes the ability to scale up this approach is constrained by the amount of editing required to successfully create an analysis mask from OS MasterMap data. Such alternative routes have the potential to assist in promoting safer environmental choices, however, their likelihood of adoption is dependant on a number of social and environmental influences which affect an individual's route choice.  相似文献   
50.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and annual mean air temperatures (MATs) are estimated for the last 200 years from glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) proxies in a marine sediment core from the Skagerrak, off southern Norway. The reconstructed values compare well with annual SSTs and summer air temperatures obtained from composite regional instrumental records. The results provide further confidence in the application of proxies based on GDGTs to estimate past temperatures.  相似文献   
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